Governor Wes Moore launched his re-election campaign this week with the claim that his administration “inherited a structural budget deficit and turned it into a surplus.” A review of official budget documents shows this is false.
Maryland’s Structural Budget Outlook Before Moore
In December 2022, shortly before Moore took office, the Department of Legislative Services (DLS) projected structural surpluses every year through FY2028. The forecast showed:
- $1.4 billion surplus in FY2024
- $1.1 billion surplus in FY2025
- Continued surpluses exceeding $1 billion through FY2028
DLS Structural Budget Outlook, Dec. 2022 (PDF)
In other words, Maryland entered the Moore administration in a strong fiscal position, with a record $5.5 billion cash surplus and years of structural surpluses ahead.
Maryland’s Structural Budget Outlook After Moore’s First Budget
By December 2023, one year into Moore’s term, the picture had reversed. DLS projected deficits in every year through FY2029, including:
- –$418 million deficit in FY2026
- –$1.77 billion deficit in FY2027
- –$2.38 billion deficit in FY2028
DLS Structural Budget Outlook, Dec. 2023 (PDF)
This represents a swing of more than $3 billion in just one year.
Analysis
Moore did not inherit a structural deficit. He inherited a record surplus and years of projected structural balance. The deficits projected today are the result of spending decisions made since he took office.
To address the gap, Moore and the legislature approved the largest tax and fee increase in Maryland history — roughly $7 billion over five years through higher vehicle fees, IT service taxes, cannabis and gambling taxes, and income tax changes.
Conclusion
Governor Wes Moore’s statement that his administration inherited a structural deficit is contradicted by independent fiscal analyses from the state’s Department of Legislative Services. Maryland’s fiscal reversal occurred during his administration, not before it.
