Prior to COVID-19 (fiscal years 2015–2019), Maryland consistently ended each year with a positive General Fund balance (a cash surplus). By the late 2010s the state even achieved structural budget surpluses – meaning ongoing revenues exceeded ongoing expenditures – for the first time in over a decade[1]. Importantly, these surpluses were realized before any federal pandemic relief funds, arising instead from stronger-than-expected revenues and restrained spending. Nonpartisan fiscal analysts and official reports confirm these surpluses and note that they were largely recurring (structural) in nature by FY2018–2019[2][3], rather than one-time windfalls.
Year-by-Year Surplus Summary (FY2015–FY2019)
| Fiscal Year | Structural Balance (Recurring) | Year-End General Fund Surplus (Cash) |
| FY2015 | Deficit – Significant structural shortfall inherited (hundreds of millions)[4]. | +$295 million (closing surplus)[5] – Revenues exceeded estimates, yielding a cash surplus. |
| FY2016 | Near balance/Deficit – Hogan’s first budget aimed for structural balance[6], but a small gap remained (SAC projected ~$300M deficit)[7]. | ~+$300–350 million (surplus) – The state ended FY2016 with an ample fund balance (projected ~$813M total reserves vs. $766M prior year)[8], implying a few hundred-million surplus. |
| FY2017 | Deficit – Ongoing revenues still trailed mandates (projected ~$750M gap for FY2018)[9]. | Modest surplus – Revenues came in $90.3M above forecast[10], leaving the general fund in the black (surplus used to shore up reserves). |
| FY2018 | Surplus – +$44 million structural surplus (first structural surplus since 2006)[1]. | +$503 million (approx.) – A half‑billion-dollar general fund surplus[11], boosted by economic growth and one-time revenue gains (e.g. federal tax law changes and online sales tax)[12][13]. |
| FY2019 | Surplus – Projected ~$431 million structural surplus by year’s end[2] (budget enacted with a smaller $73M structural surplus, meeting the Spending Affordability goal[3]). | +$351 million – Actual unassigned general fund surplus of $351 million at closeout[14], reflecting continued revenue growth (e.g. capital gains, online sales) without pandemic aid[15]. |
(All figures are from official or media reports and are rounded; “structural” refers to ongoing revenues vs. ongoing expenditures, while “cash surplus” refers to the end-of-year fund balance.)
Analysis and Context
Maryland’s cash surpluses during these years were confirmed by the Comptroller’s office and fiscal reports. For example, FY2015 ended with $295 million left in the general fund[5], and FY2018’s closeout yielded over $500 million in excess revenue[11]. Each year’s surplus was typically assigned to reserves (the Rainy Day Fund or carried into the next budget) rather than stemming from temporary federal infusions. In fact, Comptroller Peter Franchot lauded the “more than half-a-billion-dollar surplus” after FY2018 as evidence of improved finances – bolstered by the 2017 federal tax changes and a Supreme Court ruling on online sales tax (Wayfair) that boosted Maryland’s revenues[12].
Concurrently, nonpartisan budget analysts in the Department of Legislative Services (DLS) noted a dramatic improvement in the structural balance by the end of the decade. The state had long dealt with built-in deficits, but by FY2018 Maryland achieved a $44 million structural surplus – “the first time since 2006 that the general fund has closed with a structural surplus,” according to DLS budget manager David Juppe[1]. By late 2018, the structural surplus was expected to widen to roughly $431 million in FY2019 given strong revenue trends[2]. (The budget enacted for FY2019 had initially been balanced with a smaller structural margin of about $73 million – satisfying the Spending Affordability Committee’s target to eliminate the gap[3] – but subsequent revenue growth far surpassed forecasts.) Even FY2020 was enacted with a slight structural excess (~$2 million) and a healthy cash cushion[16], though forecasts warned of deficits returning in later years absent corrective actions[17].
Recurring vs. One-Time Factors
These pre-pandemic surpluses were largely recurring in nature, arising from ongoing economic growth and policy changes, rather than one-time windfalls. The structural surpluses indicate that Maryland’s recurring revenues outpaced recurring expenditures by FY2018–2019[1]. However, some factors boosting the surplus were arguably one-time or temporary (for instance, a surge in capital gains tax revenue and the one-time impact of federal tax reform in 2018[13]). Maryland’s Spending Affordability Committee – a bipartisan, legislative group – urged caution, recommending that surplus revenues be saved or used for one-time needs to avoid unsustainable base spending increases[18][19]. Both Franchot and legislative analysts consistently advised fiscal restraint, noting that despite the good fortune, structural challenges could re-emerge with mandated spending growth (e.g. education funding increases) in future budgets[9][17].
Conclusion
In summary, Maryland ran surpluses each year from 2015 through 2019, with general fund closeout balances ranging from roughly $90 million to $500+ million. By the end of this period, the state had even achieved a structural budget surplus, a fact publicly acknowledged by nonpartisan analysts[1] and reflected in official reports. These surpluses were independent of any federal COVID-19 aid, coming well before the pandemic. They were attributed to strong revenue performance and prudent budgeting, though experts cautioned that some of the surplus was best viewed as temporary and that long-term fiscal stability would require continued discipline[19][17].
Sources
Washington Post, Sep. 6 2017 (J. Hicks) – on FY2017 revenue and mid-year cuts[10].
Maryland Dept. of Legislative Services – Spending Affordability Committee Reports & Fiscal Briefings (2018–2020)[1][3]
Comptroller of Maryland – Board of Revenue Estimates and Closeout Statements (Franchot, 2015–2019)[5][12]
Maryland Matters news coverage, Nov. 2018 (D. Gaines) – “Analysts: Surplus Expected in 2020 Budget…”[1]
The Daily Record, Aug. 28 2019 (B. Sears) – “State budget surplus ticks up to $351M.”[14][15]
